Sakakawea - May 22

Here's the headline: migratory fish movements ahead of schedule, lower lake bay bites still on hold due to cold weather. But the sun is returning this week, and the bite should be going across more of the system very soon.

Now for the fish geeks like me who want the details...

Three big things seem to set the tone for how the season plays out on Sakakawea each year: water levels, spring weather, and forage levels. The water level will determine how concentrated the fish are, the early weather and water temps tend to set the tone for the depth progressions we'll see, and the forage will determine how well the fish bite and how fast they grow.

Water levels are low-ish but not super low (we're still about eight feet higher than two years ago spring). There does not seem to be a lot of fish sprawling out in backwater areas, thus finding fish shouldn't be massively challenging this year. And we are set to see a rise from mountain snowpack, which should bring or maintain good shallow bay bites into June or early July, but it won't be a ton to change updend the lake's pattern and throw them into a tizzy.

The weather so far did have a big hot streak earlier in May, which set certain things in motion, but then it got extremely cold for the last week plus. I think the initial heat started the migration of the river-run fish early, so there are waves of walleyes further downstream earlier than normal. However, the post-spawn bite for resident or local fish (those that spawn in main lake bays rather than the river) was mostly slow yet prior to the cold front, and then became almost non-existent. More on that in a moment.

As far as forage, there is enough to keep the fishery healthy, but maybe not record highs we've seen more recently, so the fish may be a little easier to trick mid-summer without so many food options. That said, forage reaches its peak in that August to September timeframe, so time will tell for sure, but that really determines whether September becomes a very challenging time or just another month to catch a bunch of walleyes out here. The size of the smelt, though, is perfect for fish growth. I'd call them goldilocks smelt: big enough for a fish to grow fast but not too big that it can't be eaten by the fish that need it the most (those 14-16 inchers).

So to me, given the large populations of 14 inch fish late last year, I'd bet we soon find that a lot of them grew to 17-18 inches, should be fairly concentrated, and probably will bite well, leading to a strong season for eating limits. And now that the weather has shaped up, that will fire up the bite and bring them back shallow where they should be in spring. And the long range forecast also looks goldilocks, warm enough to get things going but not 90 degrees which fast-forwards us into mid-summer too fast.

The last week fish have been way deeper than usual because of the massive cold spell, retreating to more stable water temperatures. A consistent warming of the surface and shallows over the next week, though, should change that and bring a shallower (at least ten feet or less) casting bite, would be my guess.

Since the bay bite has been off, we've been either fishing up in the river (New Town) or chasing main lake fish on the lower end, and it did pay off for us with a 26 and a 30-inch walleye a couple days ago along with a limit of 17-21 inch fish. Main lake bites are usually quite tough in May: there are fish there, but the water is just too cold for them to be aggressive. With the water levels down, though, it's not taking the main lake as long to warm, and it's actually been warmer than bays lately for two reasons: bays change temp faster, whether up or down, and all that rain is running some creeks and cooling them down.

So in short, I think this sets up for a good year of eating limits, we still have big ones to chase and add a bonus to the day, and it's early in terms of the shallow spring bite which I think will finally start later this week. Given the water levels aren't inordinately high, though, we could see another super deep bite late summer like last year if we get excessive heat, but if it's a mild June and July, that may not happen this time around.

If you want to get out, I have some dates yet for next week and some in June which should be its normal, amazing self this year unlike last year's cold funk that kept a lid on what we've been accustomed to out of this fishery.

And yes, I've managed a couple videos so far this year if anyone wants to enjoy! We're only getting started, fisher people!

Epic scouting trip down by Bismark on the Missouri River.

Some quick spring walleye tips.

The tail end of the pre-spawn bite on Sakakawea.